Sunday, January 27, 2008

YRCW - Yellow Roadway


YRCW, finally found a BOTTOM at least on a short term basis beginning in 2008. On the SHORT TERM CHART faced resistance around $15, broke out, and then rode SUPPORT TURNED RESISTANCE along $15 before spiking to the $19 level where it has met with some selling. That being said, the TRUCKING sector has gotten some recent UPGRADES and it is impressive that YRCW has been gaining steadily. I guess some kind of pullback is in order and I'd keep an eye on a breakout over $19...


YRCW, has declined precipitously including a drop from $38 in July 2007 to a low around $12 within the past month. At this point the BLACK DOUBLE DASHED MID-LINE is acting as a RESISTANCE ZONE. In addition, BLUE TREND-LINE RESISTANCE is providing a concomitant ceiling to prices which are now above a SINGER EMA BAND that has started to rise. Any eventual breakout over this $20-$22 range will signal a more lasting turn upwards, though I can't help but think we are a little overdone to the upside near term...


When your stock price declines from $65 to $12 over a three year period, there is not much good that can be said. On the WEEKLY chart, YRCW has been declining in a descending channel that has been broadening as it heads lower. After hitting $12 recently, we have seen a huge spike on high volume that has brought the price from DECLINING GREEN TREND-LINE SUPPORT back up to BLACK DASHED MID-LINE RESISTANCE. Simultaneously, the price has mean reverted to the lower average in the SINGER EMA BAND. That means heavy resistance at these levels but also signals that sentiment has finally turned and that we should look for a formation of a base...


YRCW was once a stock market darling rising steadily from $10 to $65 by mid- 2005. However, it then lost all of those gains over the past three (3) years time, falling through the bottom of what looked to be TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION. As a result, a grossly oversold condition arose, as can be seen with the recent massive bounce which left a large HAMMER BOTTOM on the MONTHLY candlestick chart. Judging by the position of the SINGER EMA BAND this rebound looks like it could get up the the low $30's after a near term pull back...

Saturday, January 26, 2008

$PLAT- Platinum Futures


$PLAT, on the DAILY chart is shown breaking out of the CUP AND HANDLE seen on the WEEKLY chart and has been in a clean uptrend for the last four (4) months and has ridden BLUE TREND-LINE SUPPORT higher. That being said the massive increase over the last couple of trading days is strange and feels like too much- then again it could be auguring higher prices.


$PLAT, engaged in a near parabolic rise from $500 to $1350 and then entered into a clear 15 month CUP AND HANDLE CONSOLIDATION. Finally, in October, the price of Platinum broke out from the HANDLE above resistance at $1350, and moved significantly higher. You would think we would get a huge rally here, but it could also be some kind of top.


$PLAT rose nicely during the beginning of the millenium until it ran into stiff resistance around the $500 level through which it could not penetrate despite a number of attempts. After a quick steep correction the current massive UPTREND got going and has quite consistently without failure managed to remain above the BLUE SUPPORT TREND-LINE. As can be seen from the chart, the price of Platinum found very strong support from the SINGER EMA BAND, though it had been struggling until recently to breakout through the highs of 2006/7 represented on the chart as RED HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE.

However, recently, $PLAT has broken out strongly over those levels and has made a huge run over the past couple of months ever since the August lows in the equity markets and the attendant extra liquidity being infused.

Friday, January 25, 2008

$INDU - Dow Jones Industrial Average


$INDU, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost two thousand (2000) points from ~13,700 to ~11,700 during the past six weeks. Needless to say that is a very hefty decline. As you can see, the BLUE TREND-LINE RESISTANCE kept a lid on prices as they slowly and steadily declined. However, this down move was punctuated by heavy losses on high volume. Once a selling climax occurred the down move was exhausted we got a rather clear "W" BOTTOM complete with a retest of the 11,650 level. That move was highlighted by a serious reversal wherein prices were down 300 points during the day and then reversed to finish up 300.

As BLUE TREND-LINE RESISTANCE is surmounted we got a pullback to the SINGER EMA BAND this Friday. At this point we could get a retest of the lows, however, a move toward 12,600 is the more likely scenario with the likelihood of testing DASHED MID-LINE RESISTANCE and then previous SUPPORT levels now turned RESISTANCE. Merely a COUNTERTREND RALLY.


$INDU got itself going in 2005 as it rode GREEN TREND-LINE SUPPORT before breaking out in 2006. The Index attempted to breakout over the 11,670 level which was the 2000 high but was rebuffed only to find good support at the GREEN TRENDLINE. Subsequently $INDU made another run at that level and eclipsed it breaking out to new nominal highs and began it run to the mid 14000's.

After running up the high 12,000's the market took a quick tumble in March 2007 down to 12,050 but found excellent support and then catapulted to the 14,000's over the next number of months $INDU traced out a classic HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern which turned out to be a TOP. After failing to breakout over it all time highs, the "deteriorating credit cycle and negative out look for the consumer combined with an ever negative real estate environment gave impetus to further selling. This led to a breakdown below the NECKLINE of the HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN around 12,750. The market then collapsed further with KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS having been breached.

However, after falling to 11,650, which was a SUPPORT level, the market became unusually oversold, and therefore further downside became unlikely near term. The end of that down move was highlighted by a serious one day reversal, wherein prices were down 300 points during the day and then reversed to finish up 300 by the close. It was a huge move although its importance laid in its marking a NEAR TERM LOW, similar to the ones seen in March and August 2007, where the $INDU was down severely and then recovered leaving a HAMMER BOTTOM candlestick in place. Interestingly, the BOTTOM SHADOW of the CANDLESTICK which represents the depths to which prices fell at their lowest that day coincided with the original GREEN TREND-LINE SUPPORT which was traced out in 2005/6. On this WEEKLY chart it looks probable that prices would snap back and rendezvous with the now declining SINGER EMA BAND around the low 13,000's or high 12,000's give or take...


Here, the $INDU is seen having gone through a massive UPTREND delineated by the GREEN SUPPORT TREND-LINE running from the lows in the mid 1990's below 4,000 to the highs recorded in August 2007 over 14,000. The two key features of this chart are the aforementioned "green support trendline", and the symmetrical band, which is placed horizontally across the chart and as it turns out delineates key SUPPORT and RESISTANCE levels. This "Symmetrical Band" consists of two horizontal lines spanning the breadth of the chart and a "Dashed Mid-Line" which is a naked eye approximation of the midway point between theses two horizontal lines.

$INDU ran up huge into the 'Symmetrical Band' by 1997, and after several months held support at the lower band. Thereafter, it climbed steadily but was rebuffed at the dashed mid-line which at that point was overhead resistance. The Index then shot down but held support once again at the lower band. That was the crisis of 1998 and afterward we got a magical move higher above the dashed mid-line. Over the next few years the top band formed resistance for the Index as it moved to all time highs but was clearly having trouble moving higher. looking back now it is easy to see that this was a major period of distribution.

After the 2001 crash, etc., the $INDU found wonderful simultaneous SUPPORT at both the rising GREEN SUPPORT TREND-LINE and the LOWER BAND of the "Symmetrical band" that we have been speaking of. This area played host to the formation of a "W" Bottom which along with super low interest rates catapulted the Index to a new rally which eventually pierced the UPPER BAND which then became SUPPORT.

During the recent selloff in the Markets it is this UPPER BAND that is now acting as firm support around 11,700.


This 25 year or so chart of the $INDU kind of speaks for itself. Essentially, what it says is that the move has already been made from under 1,000 in the early 1980's to over 14,000 recently. That being said, GREEN TREND-LINE SUPPORT is still holding so theoretically this market is still in a LONG TERM UPTREND. However, if this massive UPTREND does eventually come to an end, the fall attending the end of that trend could easily bring us back to the 7,000 level. However, I don't know if thats possible given the amount of liquidity out their and the virulent fiat money creation.


If this is indeed the "bend in the end" of the above-mentioned huge uptrend in the $INDU, I have laid out a Fibonacci study of the retracement levels we are likely to see... Not pretty!!!!

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

$VIX - Volatility Index S+P


The $VIX made a spike higher during the August lows in the market. Since that time, the DAILY chart shows a SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE from which the $VIX just broke out to the upside. Considering the S+P 500 is now squarely under the 1370 August lows commentators have mentioned that the $VIX should be higher at this point and therefore the Broad Indices have further to go on the down side. Will we test the August highs in the $VIX? Let's see...


On the WEEKLY charts, we see the $VIX and its movement out of the low volatility mode that characterized the rally in equities over the past four (4) years. Then at the August low in the S+P 500, the $VIX began a new phase trading over the WHITE DASHED MID LINE and forming a SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION after the huge spike from 9 to 37. Let's see if we get a full on massive upside breakout to the upside here coinciding with a selling climax in equities?


The $VIX on the MONTHLY chart shows the high volatility environment that characterized the equity market during the climax and decline of 1998-2002. Subsequently,the market entered a period of unusually low volatility which played out on the charts in a rounded bottom. Finally, with the August downdraft in the market, volatility "came back into the market". The BLUE TRENDLINE is providing support to the upside...

$NIKK - Nikkei 225


$NIKK, the most widely followed Index of Japanese Stocks saw a meteoric rise in its price from 12,500 to 40,000 during the years of 1986 to late 1989. During the period of 1987 to 1991, the Index traced out a clear HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP, with neckline support being violated around 22,000, an incredible decline.

Once this key level was violated, the next ten years was spent in a sideways pattern wherein that NECKLINE SUPPORT was challenged from below and became stiff RESISTANCE. Unable to break through this level, the BULLS threw in the towel and in tandem with the "tech bubble meltdown" the $NIKK saw a relentless decline gown to 7,000 well below the levels where it began its meteoric rise.

During the years of 2001 and 2005, the Index traced out what appears to be a HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM pattern with NECKLINE SUPPORT at the 12,000 level. Once this level was surmounted a quick 6,000 point rally occurred which busted through BLUE TRENDLINE RESISTANCE. However, over the next couple of years 18,300 became overhead resistance and upon failing at that level a few times the Index began to fall and has since retraced most of its previous gain from the neckline breakout and now sits around the mid 13,000's as the recent pullback in Global Equity prices has taken its toll in Japan.

That being said, it looks like the $NIKK should have pretty strong support around the 12,000 which is both NECKLINE RESISTANCE TURNED SUPPORT and also RESISTANCE TURNED SUPPORT of the triangle from which the price broke out in 2005. It is possible to envision a scenario where in the midst of a severe decline in Global Equities the $NIKK could form a double bottom thus carrying the Index back to the 7,000 area. Thus the 12,000 level must be watched closely...

Monday, January 14, 2008


I just started messing around with a new template for looking at charts and trying to do a quick analysis with annotations and a written commentary along the lines of what I've been evolving on the Blog over the past few years... If anyone wants to know about a Stock/Bond/Index/Commodity/ETF/Mutual Fund - I'll see what I can do for you... If you have a request or want to receive the charts I check out on a periodic basis, email me - SINGERSMARKET@GMAIL.COM...


Sunday, January 13, 2008

BSX - Boston Scientific


BSX, has been trading in a range between 13.00 and 10.80 over the last month or so. After declining under the 12.00 mark the stock began to trade sideways and subsequently made three (3) attempts at cracking the 11.90’s level, which became resistance. After failing at that level one too many times the stock declined once again until finding support down in the 10.80’s. This level is a major support area on the monthly chart and apparently of some significance as BSX made a rather sharp bounce off those levels only to fail at the 11.90’s resistance level referenced earlier. However this jump propelled it over BLUE trend-line resistance and was significant in percentage terms and took place while the broader market swooned. Clearly any move over the BLACK dashed mid-point resistance line would be viewed as near term positive. Finally, let’s remember that this name was at 45.00 in late 2004 and has fallen like a cinder block in a river after its takeover of Guidant (GDT)…


BSX, has been trading in a range between a high in the 16.70’s and a low around 10.80 since June… After a sharp decline into the August lows BSX snapped back along with the broader market and made a countertrend bounce back to the $15.30’s level where it began to decline once more and tried to form a double bottom around 12.00. However, the rally attempt ran straight in to downward trending SINGER EMA BAND and turned back lower and broke through the possible double bottom. The stock has stabilized for now with near term overhead resistance at the $12.00 level. However, if you examine the Volume levels in the stock over the past couple of months, there appears to be a favorable amount of upside interest coming into the market around here even though the stock has not gone any higher. Perhaps the recent pop is a sign that the grinding decline is finally over…


BSX, has traded between around $32.00 and the high 10.00’s over the past three (3) years or so… Has been in the midst of a brutal grinding steady downtrend after it topped out in late 2004. The stock has been trading under the EMA BAND and has been turned back numerous times at the 46 week EMA as it attempted over and over to put an end to the prolonged down trend. However, BSX has failed to find a bottom at any time and frustrated LONGS must once more look for a floor around the $11.00 level. On a positive note – sentiment is highly negative and frustration levels have peaked. BLUE trend line resistance continues to provide a ceiling so keep an eye out for a breakout above that level…


BSX, has been in the throes of an unusually persistent down trend ever since it made a triple top around $45.00 in late 2004. After the controversial decision to acquire Guidant (GDT) the stock has done nothing but sell off. Over the course of the decline the stock has attempted to form a base but has failed SUPPORT over and over again. I can’t help but think that “sentiment” on this name has to be incredibly negative and that whatever LONGS are left in this name are brow beaten and in the throes of despair. BSX finally broke down penetrating CHANNEL SUPPORT in 2007 and then rallied back to that level only to fail again. Recently, some buyers came in around the high $10 level where the stock had enjoyed some SUPPORT a number of years ago. Perhaps this is the level at which an actual base can begin to form and the hell known as owning this name might begin to subside. On a long-term basis I can’t help but think that BSX will eventually become a winner but that thought is more solace to a buyer here, as opposed to a holder clinging to hope all the way down 35 straight points…

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

OSIP - OSI Pharma


OSIP, has been forming a BULLISH CONTINUATION PENNANT on the MONTHLY chart shown above. After it’s huge run in 1999 from under $2 a share to around $90, it retraced steeply and formed a DOUBLE BOTTOM into the beginning of 2003. The stock began a sharp rally that after breaking through the MIDPOINT of the formation (see black dashed line) culminated in a retest of the 1999 highs. The stock failed to penetrate that level and embarked on a similar pullback to lower levels. However, it made HIGHER LOWS and held KEY TRENDLINE SUPPORT (see upward sloping solid green line) a few times as it tried to break down through those levels in late 2005. The stock rallied off support but was held in check by the SINGER EMA BAND. After finding SUPPORT again around $30 it rallied above the EMA BAND toward the midpoint of the formation and touched above $50. Looks to be overbought near term, but as the EMA BAND slopes upward, an eventual break through the midpoint could lead to much higher prices…


OSIP has been in a SUSTAINED UPTREND since making a near term low during the August sell-off. Got a few upgrades by major brokerages and been riding trend line support ever since. As is evident from the EQUIVOLUME chart, this stock broke through RESISTANCE with major volume and price movement. That red/green resistance line, just under $38, is where it had been turned back a number of times previously. Once this level was surmounted, a CONSOLIDATION of the big pop ensued and then after a bounce off the (19) upper line in the SINGER EMA BAND it made another move higher. It’s currently pulling back to SUPPORT as the up move was a bit over extended for now. However, a lot of money is moving in and technically this one is shaping up just fine for a move HIGHER. Of course, this is BIOTECH and the cancer drug space is a volatile one.