Sunday, January 13, 2008

BSX - Boston Scientific

SHORT TERM

BSX, has been trading in a range between 13.00 and 10.80 over the last month or so. After declining under the 12.00 mark the stock began to trade sideways and subsequently made three (3) attempts at cracking the 11.90’s level, which became resistance. After failing at that level one too many times the stock declined once again until finding support down in the 10.80’s. This level is a major support area on the monthly chart and apparently of some significance as BSX made a rather sharp bounce off those levels only to fail at the 11.90’s resistance level referenced earlier. However this jump propelled it over BLUE trend-line resistance and was significant in percentage terms and took place while the broader market swooned. Clearly any move over the BLACK dashed mid-point resistance line would be viewed as near term positive. Finally, let’s remember that this name was at 45.00 in late 2004 and has fallen like a cinder block in a river after its takeover of Guidant (GDT)…

DAILY

BSX, has been trading in a range between a high in the 16.70’s and a low around 10.80 since June… After a sharp decline into the August lows BSX snapped back along with the broader market and made a countertrend bounce back to the $15.30’s level where it began to decline once more and tried to form a double bottom around 12.00. However, the rally attempt ran straight in to downward trending SINGER EMA BAND and turned back lower and broke through the possible double bottom. The stock has stabilized for now with near term overhead resistance at the $12.00 level. However, if you examine the Volume levels in the stock over the past couple of months, there appears to be a favorable amount of upside interest coming into the market around here even though the stock has not gone any higher. Perhaps the recent pop is a sign that the grinding decline is finally over…

WEEKLY

BSX, has traded between around $32.00 and the high 10.00’s over the past three (3) years or so… Has been in the midst of a brutal grinding steady downtrend after it topped out in late 2004. The stock has been trading under the EMA BAND and has been turned back numerous times at the 46 week EMA as it attempted over and over to put an end to the prolonged down trend. However, BSX has failed to find a bottom at any time and frustrated LONGS must once more look for a floor around the $11.00 level. On a positive note – sentiment is highly negative and frustration levels have peaked. BLUE trend line resistance continues to provide a ceiling so keep an eye out for a breakout above that level…

MONTHLY

BSX, has been in the throes of an unusually persistent down trend ever since it made a triple top around $45.00 in late 2004. After the controversial decision to acquire Guidant (GDT) the stock has done nothing but sell off. Over the course of the decline the stock has attempted to form a base but has failed SUPPORT over and over again. I can’t help but think that “sentiment” on this name has to be incredibly negative and that whatever LONGS are left in this name are brow beaten and in the throes of despair. BSX finally broke down penetrating CHANNEL SUPPORT in 2007 and then rallied back to that level only to fail again. Recently, some buyers came in around the high $10 level where the stock had enjoyed some SUPPORT a number of years ago. Perhaps this is the level at which an actual base can begin to form and the hell known as owning this name might begin to subside. On a long-term basis I can’t help but think that BSX will eventually become a winner but that thought is more solace to a buyer here, as opposed to a holder clinging to hope all the way down 35 straight points…

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