Wednesday, August 19, 2009

$SPXA200 - S&P 500 Stocks Over 200 Day MA

See this Annotated Chart on the Big Picture

This chart is interesting because it can be used to support many theories...

My own personal theory as to what will happen, can be seen by using this chart with the chart attached below... The thesis is that just like the % of S&P 500 stocks over 200 day ma led the SP 500 itself down in July 2007, it seems that the % of S&P 500 stocks over 200 day ma, could be leading them higher here. IAs you can see the S&P 500 itself is still fairly low on the chart, while the % of S&P 500 stocks over 200 day ma is already at 457, meaning there isn't much further it can go to the upside.

That means this chart could be used to support the following thesis:

The market continues to go higher and eventually fills the "Lehman gap" up to the high 1100's, low 1200's, but that has to be on weakening overall strength and breadth because the market has shot up so insanely already and like I said 457 of 500 are already above their 200 day ma's. That area is also the neckline that was penetrated long ago and is severe resistance. By that time, the overall rally will be some 85% off the lows and almost everyone will be sure that this is a new bull market. Picture the atmosphere now, but up another 200 points on the S&P. Those 200 points will be the public finally coming back on board as the message that recovery is here gets filtered into everyone's psyche. As you have noted, the professionals are "all in". As we move up, the public investor gets in just in time for the market to begin moving lower again in earnest...

Its just a theory, but....

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